Setting a New Pace

A new GM is in Chicago. Yesterday Ryan Pace was named the new general manager of the Bears. This was a surprising move to numerous Bears fans and analysts. Many people thought Chris Ballard from Kansas City would be the go ahead hire because of his extensive history with the Bears.

However, staying true to the recently announced intentions to do whatever it takes to turn the Bears into a championship caliber team, Chicago executives decided to move on from past trends and hired a man with no previous ties to the Bears. The reality of having a GM with no prior loyalties to the organizational structure of the Bears provides hope that the franchise will finally break free from the cycle of mediocrity that has been displayed for much of the past thirty years.

In my previous article I mentioned the need for the Bears to find a GM who comes from a successful organization. Thankfully, this is the case with the Ryan Pace hire as he spent his entire NFL career (2001-2014) with the New Orleans Saints, a team which has made five playoff appearances including one Super Bowl victory during his tenure.

Pace now has the huge responsibility of hiring the next head coach. With the recent hiring of Marc Trestman over Bruce Arians, the pain of looking at the former crosstown rival's success under Arians is intense. However, the Bears should pay close attention the Cardinals' rapid turnaround from being a 5-11 team to a playoff qualifier within two seasons. Arians has been a key contributor to Arizona'a transformation.

Transformation should be the motto for the Bears over the next two seasons. The Bears need to find a Bruce Arians equivalent to ensure their own transformation. Former Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone is pretty close. Marrone spent the same amount of time at Buffalo as Bruce Arians has at Arizona. Although Marrone did not make the playoffs, he did lead the Bills to their first winning season since 2004. Marrone's Bills beat major contenders such as New England, Green Bay, and Detroit, and swept the NFC North.

I believe the reason Arians and Marrone were able to transform their teams so quickly is because they are both offensive coaches leading defensive teams. Think back to the quality of defensive play exhibited by both the Cardinals and the Bills this past season. Defense was strongest asset of both teams.

This is similar to the Lovie Smith-lead Bear teams, except Lovie could only coach defense. For much of his time with the Bears, the offense was horrendous. This was not the case with Marrone's Bills or Arians' Cardinals. Both coaches were able to rally strong enough play from their offenses to compliment the excellent defensive play and score points.

I was buying the idea of turning the Bears into an offensive team during the 2013 season until I saw what happened to the Broncos (the gold standard of offensive teams) in the Super Bowl. Now I am positive the best way to win in this league is to be a defensive team with an offensive head coach. The Bears can find that in Doug Marrone.


References:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/playoffs.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/MarrDo0.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/AriaBr0.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2014.htm

Breaking Silence

After more than a year I am returning to Halas' Heroes, hopefully on a much more consistent basis. I considered writing during the season, however this mortifying 2014 season left me too embarrassed, angry and depressed to even attempt an in-season post.

Instead of revisiting the myriad of reasons for the 2014 debacle, I want to focus on the Bears moving forward. Bear fans have 3 significant things to look forward to this off-season: Hiring a new general manager, hiring a new head coach and having a top 10 draft pick. In this post I will focus on hiring a new GM.

To decide what the Bears need to look for in a new GM let's first reflect on the noteworthy achievements and failures of the past two general managers. I will use draft picks, notable free agent signings, significant roster moves and overall team production as a means of "grading" each GM.

88 Total Draft Picks: Jerry Angelo 

Bears' longtime standout CB Charles "Peanut" Tillman

Good- Alex Brown, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, Devin Hester, Tommie Harris, Mark Anderson (mid round draft pick who was very productive in his rookie season which directly contributed to the Bears Super Bowl appearance), Greg Olsen, Corey Graham (Pro Bowl special team player drafted in a late round),Matt Forte, Henry Melton (based on a Pro Bowl appearance and being a late-mid round pick).

 Bad- David Terrell, Marc Colombo, Tank Johnson (good play significantly overshadowed by off-field behavior), Cedric Benson, Mark Bradley, Chris Williams, Gabe Carimi.

Verdict is still out- Stephen Paea

10 Good Picks 7 Bad Picks 1 Undecided Pick 70 Irrelevant Picks  

20 Total Draft Picks: Phil Emery 
Good- Alshon Jeffery, Kyle Long.

 Bad- Shea McClellin

 Verdict is still out- Jonathan Bostic, Jordan Mills, Kyle Fuller, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Brock Vereen

 2 Good Picks 1 Bad Pick 6 Undecided Picks 11 Irrelevant Picks

*For a player to earn a "Bad" rating they had to be drafted in either round 1 or 2 and have never performed at a level expected of a player with that draft status.

 Noteworthy Good Free Agent Signings/Roster Moves
 Jerry Angelo: Larry Whigham, Thomas Jones, Robbie Gould, Brendan Ayanbedejo, Adewale Ogunleye, Desmond Clark, John Tait, Ruben Brown, Roberto Garza, Jay Cutler, Julius Peppers, Tim Jennings

Phil Emery: Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Matt Slauson, Willie Young

 Noteworthy Bad Free Agent Signings/Roster Moves 
Jerry Angelo: Trading Thomas Jones, Signing Todd Collins as backup quarterback in 2010

Phil Emery: Jay Cutler contract extension

 Overall Success 
Jerry Angelo: 95-81 record, 1 Super Bowl Appearance, 4 Playoff Appearances, 4 Division Titles

Phil Emery: 23-25 record, 0 Playoff Appearances

This is a lot of data to decipher, and certainly data does not tell the whole story, but it does reveal some trends.

 First, both strategies have led to virtually a .500 record for both managers. Furthermore if I took the time to list the starting lineups in each of the Bears' playoff seasons, it would be apparent that Bear draft picks made up most of the lineups (with the offensive line being the exception).

 Another important statistic is the number of irrelevant draft picks there have been since 2001 (I do recognize that many irrelevant picks have played in starting roles in the past). This statistic is significant when looking at the roster of the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers who have qualified for the playoffs 11 times in the same time span as the tenures of Jerry Angelo and Phil Emery. This relates to the Packers' roster because they pride themselves on building the vast majority of their roster with the draft.

 The Seattle Seahawks have drafted many of their play makers as well. In just a few years Seattle built a Super Bowl Champion roster that will most likely be playing in the post season for many years to come. The same things can be said for Baltimore and Pittsburgh as well.

If the Bears are going to achieve this level of consistency they need to find a GM who is able to put together a strong roster primarily through the draft. Clearly this is much easier to say than do, but the Bears could simplify the process by looking to a team who consistently drafts well. So please Ted Phillips and Ernie Accorsi do not look to the Titans' or Chiefs' personnel staff to find the next GM. Instead look to a perennial contender to find the next general manager of the Chicago Bears.

 References: 
http://www.fftoday.com/nfl/drafttracker.php?o=by_team&TeamID=9019
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/
http://www.sportsecyclopedia.com/nfl/chicago/bears.html
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/playoffs.htm